Eurasia Group President: The honeymoon between Biden, Merkel and Macron will soon end, and distances remain on defensive and Chinese techniques. The European Union chooses between an alliance of democracies and strategic autonomy. the Dragon? It would be a mistake not to mention it in Monaco, where Italy could overtake France and Germany
“The honeymoon between Biden and Europe will not last forever.” Ian Bremer, Chair of the Eurasia Group and professor at New York University, warns of easy zeal. It will take more than just a drastic adjustment to mend parts of transatlantic relations four years later Donald Trump In the White House. This is not necessarily the case with the new president Joe Biden Things necessarily get better.
A glimpse of Biden’s official debut at a European summit on Friday, first at G7, then at the Munich Security Conference with Emmanuel Macron Ed Angela Merkel. There is no doubt that the European Union is happy to see Biden as president – as Bremer says – but with Russia and China, the strategic rivals of the United States, Europe still boasts a great economic consensus and it seems that both France and Germany are unwilling to find a compromise with the Americans. The Security Front, From European Defense to Biotechnology. “
Just note the divisions over NATO’s contribution and mission. “An alliance born with a strong regional footprint and focus on conventional and nuclear weapons, with the goal of containing Russia, which must now adapt to the twenty-first century. The United States wants to move towards its Chinese rival, but it faces resistance. Jens Stoltenberg He personally told me it was unimaginable. “
Besides the apparent similarities around multilateralism, climate policies, and negotiations for nuclear disarmament of Iran (Jcpoa), Bremer continues, the US foreign policy agenda does not coincide at all with that of Merkel and Macron in Europe. The United States, led by Biden, for example, is less interested in its presence in the Middle East. Macron, now that Merkel is about to leave, has assumed the reins of European security policy and wants a difficult confrontation with Turkey. “
The same argument, as the American political scientist points out, applies to relations with Russia Russian President Vladimir PutinWho was targeted by the international community for arresting the opposition Alexey Navalny And the occupation of the Crimea. Visit of the High Representative of the European Union to Moscow Josep Borrell It was not handled well. Europe is still caught in two shoes. Germany continues building Russia’s North Stream 2 pipeline, and strikes billions of dollars in deals with Moscow. And in the European Union there is Hungary Victor UrbanWho sees Putin as a model? “
In Munich, Biden relaunched an initiative he had already announced during the election campaign. “Alliance of Western Democracies” to contain Russia and China, in defense of human rights. One wonders how to reconcile it with the narrative of “strategic autonomy” by the European Union Commission Ursula von der Leyen He made a European statement.
“Both of them cannot coexist – as Bremer says – the European Union will want to merge with the United States on individual files, climate, trade, and other files it wants to continue the path of” autonomy. “But to what extent you can be independent if not Spending enough money on defense? If we don’t invest in cybersecurity, in defending critical infrastructures? “
When the honeymoon with Paris and Berlin is over, the honeymoon is in Italy Mario Draghi You will be able to gain ground in European hierarchies in Washington, DC, and Bremer shuts down. “I am a fan of Draghi, and I was surprised that no one mentioned him in Munich. Italy is one of the main European economies, and today it is led by one of the most respected leaders in Europe. It would be a mistake to underestimate it.”
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