Like a movie do not search. But it will most likely end (much better). After the initial calculations NASA Asteroid Watchthe department that monitors potentially dangerous asteroids and comets, detected its presence 1 in 700 chance that in 2046 an asteroid called 2023DW could crash into Earth. Although it is very low, it is a very high probability for these types of observations. If we want to be optimistic, we can say so There is a 99.86% chance that our planet will not be affected.
the accounts
NASA, however, reassures me: I’m on my own Raw data, calculated a few days after the discovery. In all previous similar cases, more careful analyzes after months/years of observing the trajectory of the threatening stellar body reduced the odds to 1 in tens of thousands, as happened for example for the 340-meter-diameter asteroid 99942 Apophis. Once discovered it looked set to fall on our heads in the year 2036, it has been calculated that April 13, 2029 will pass within 37,400 km of the surface, just above the altitude where the geosynchronous satellites orbit. Pretty close, therefore, with a probability of 1 in 250,000 impact.
Sizes
2023DW (the number indicates the year of discovery, the letter D indicates that it was discovered in the second half of February, 26 to be exact, by the observatory in the Atacama Desert, Chile) Its diameter is estimated at 49.29 metres. So it’s not very big. The asteroid that wiped out 70% of living things, including dinosaurs, 66 million years ago was 10 kilometers in diameter, or 200 times larger. 2023DW completes a full orbit around the Sun in 271 days, and on February 14, 2046 it will pass at a distance of 20,000 km from Earth, with a margin of error that it may reach (always according to preliminary data). It is currently traveling at over 88,600 kilometers per hour relative to the sunESA 2023DW currently tops the list of hazardous objects And the odds of crashing are slightly higher: 1 in 625.
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