Erdogan… the balance between Putin and the West and the scenario that might force him to give up ambiguity – Corriere.it

Leaders of major countries congratulated in quick succession Recep Tayyip Erdogan: Joe Biden, Vladimir Putin, Olaf Schultz, Emmanuel Macron. But today, May 29, a message Volodymyr ZelenskyIn addition to the President of the European Union Commission, Ursula von der Leyen and the Secretary-General of the United Nations, Antonio Guterres.

In this case, formalism is also of the essence.

With Erdogan’s new electoral victory, an interesting and hectic stage in international politics can begin. As Marco Ansaldo wrote in the book “The Turkish March”, which was just published by Marcello Specchi, “Erdogan today has turned into Figaro, wanted and sought by everyone, at international summits, as well as in the most important files.”

The first point of interest, of course, is Ukraine. In recent months, the Turkish president has been the only leader, together with the United Nations, to achieve a very important diplomatic outcome: Agreement between Moscow and Kiev on the export of Ukrainian grain. On May 17, the agreement was extended for only two months (it was Erdogan himself who announced it). This means that in a few weeks, increasingly difficult negotiations will be reopened, given that, in the meantime, a file will be reopened Ukrainian military counterattack.

There is no doubt who will have to attempt mediation again: Turkey’s 69-year-old head of state. So far his strategy has worked, and I’ve made a profit out of one Systematic political, economic and diplomatic ambiguity.

Erdogan sent his drones to Volodymyr Zelensky, however Suspected of facilitating the smuggling of Russian oilBy circumventing the sanctions imposed by the West, which it did not abide by despite its membership in NATO.
He smiles at Joe Biden and calls Putin a “dear friend.”
It asks the Pentagon to buy F-16 fighter jets, and at the same time welcomes a $19 billion investment by Russia’s Rosatom to build the country’s first nuclear power plant.
He made himself indispensable to the military balance of NATO, but he made the Finns sweat the green light to get into the club and still kept the Swedes in suspense.

Now it will be necessary to understand whether Erdogan’s position will remain central and inescapable in the coming months as well.

can be imagined Two opposite scenarios, both of which are related to the developments of the Ukrainian conflict. The first is the continuity sign. If an initiative for peace takes off in some way, for example the one promoted by the Vatican or China, Erdoğan will be involved anyway and can indeed subtly increase his role as a “mediator” at equal distances. At this point, he will have the possibility of consolidating economic relations (energy and raw materials) with Russia, without losing sight of the strategic relationship with NATO and the United States.

However, the second scenario is more complex. If the Ukrainian counterattack nullifies the chances of negotiationWe will be heading towards a dangerous escalation of the confrontation between Russia and the West. At that time Erdoğan’s position may become uncomfortable, perhaps untenable, because he would have to choose, clearly to take sides. Putin will make the weight of Russian investment in Türkiye worthwhile. Biden that aid and military orders. It will not be easy for Erdogan to capitulate or endanger one or the other.